Closer to the Mark: Improving Pharmaceutical Forecasting by Understanding What Drives Prediction Mistakes
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
11:45 a.m. - 1:30 p.m.
Maggiano's Little Italy
The Streets at SouthPoint
8030 Renaissance Parkway
Durham, NC 27713
|Through April 25:
|After April 25:
LES Member: $35.00
Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology is perhaps the world’s most transparent industry. Products approaching the market can be identified and tracked for many years ahead of launch, substantial resources are available characterizing relevant patient populations, and regulations carefully limit how product messages can be positioned. Nevertheless, the track record for product revenue forecasts is not good. In fact, analysts routinely overestimate peak sales by a factor of three. Other products offer surprisingly strong sales. The implications of this inaccuracy are profound leading to substantial investment dislocations.
This presentation will discuss the results of an extensive review on the drivers of inaccurate forecasting. Starting with an overview of industry forecasting accuracy, the speaker will then discuss market factors that have driven many of the largest forecast errors of the past five years. Understanding categories such as "Innovation Battlefields," "Markets that Resist Equal Allocation," "Payer Impatience," and "Delay Deductions," the audience will be able to avoid these forecasting pitfalls in the future.
Triangle Insights Group, LLC
Ben Bonifant is a founding partner at Triangle Insights Group. He is an experienced consultant to leaders of global pharmaceuticals and biotechnology organizations and to decision makers of large private equity funds. Mr. Bonifant has been a management consultant for more than twenty years. His perspectives on developments in the life sciences market are frequently published in industry and strategy journals. Recent by-lined articles have appeared in Pharmaceutical Executive, InVivo, Nature Biotech, RPM Report, and Scrip. In addition, Mr. Bonifant has written case studies on the pharmaceutical industry used in graduate business programs.
Mr. Bonifant is a past Chair of the Life Sciences Executive Committee of the Licensing Executive Society. He has also been a member of the program committee for BIO International Convention. Prior to the founding of Triangle Insights Group, Mr. Bonifant was the leader of the Business Development Practice at Campbell Alliance and a partner in the Strategy practice at Oliver Wyman.
He has been a guest lecturer at the Fuqua School of Business, the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, and many industry conferences in the US, Europe, and Canada. Mr. Bonifant earned an M.B.A. from the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a B.S. from Duke University.
This event is generously sponsored by:
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